Will case affect how voters feel?

Grip on Republican party not changed, pollster says

DES MOINES, IOWA In March, when Donald Trump became the first former president in U.S. history indicted on criminal charges, his re-election campaign saw a huge surge in donations. Even political rivals rushed to support him. There was no dent in his front-runner status after the state charges in New York.

Thursday’s news that Trump has been indicted again, this time on federal charges related to his handling of classified documents, may offer a repeat.

Soon after he was indicted, there were clear signs that Republican voters may be willing to entrust him again with access to the nation’s biggest secrets and authority over the very laws prosecutors say he defied.

Republican pollster Neil Newhouse said the indictment would not fundamentally change Trump’s standing in the GOP or his advantage in the crowded 2024 Republican primary.

“In any other decade, this would be more than enough to kill a presidential contender in the crib. That’s no longer the case – particularly for Donald Trump,” Newhouse said. He argued Trump has been effectively setting expectations for more charges for months.

“This comes as a surprise to very few Republicans,” Newhouse said. “Trump’s been saying he’d get indicted. He got indicted. The sense from many Republican voters is that this is all about politics.”

The prospect that someone under indictment — twice — could somehow still be considered a viable presidential candidate underscores Trump’s grip on the Republican Party and the ways that he has fundamentally transformed democratic norms in the United States.

It also illustrates just how effective he has become at inoculating himself against political fallout by setting expectations and controlling the narrative. And it reflects growing Republican hostility toward the federal government and particularly the Justice Department, which Trump has now spent the better part of a decade maligning.

But even if the indictment doesn’t hurt Trump’s standing with Republican primary voters, it’s far from certain that the broader set of general election voters, which includes independents and moderates in both parties, will be as forgiving next fall in a prospective matchup against President Joe Biden.

The Democratic president beat Trump in 2020 with a promise to restore a sense of normalcy to Washington after Trump’s dramafilled presidency. With these new charges, Trump’s baggage is only growing heavier.

For now, the new indictment throws Trump back into the spotlight, dominating every news cycle and denying his rivals space to break through to voters, just as many have formally launched their campaigns.

Republican strategist Sarah Longwell, a fierce Trump critic and founder of the Republican Accountability Project, acknowledged the indictment might ultimately help Trump seize the GOP nomination.

“I’ve certainly seen a ‘rally around Trump effect’ every time Trump is impeached or indicted,” she said, adding that much depends on the reaction of his Republican 2024 challengers.